GameWeek 25 Preview

This week according to my method, the top 3 teams with more tendency to score goals are: Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. I think Manchester United will, as usual score goals, despite the victory of fulham in the last gameweek, I think United will win without difficulties, I think the question is to bet on Van Persie or Rooney. Chelsea will have a difficult move, because with the new signings from Newcastle, I think Newcastle will climb several positions in the table, but the most likely is chelsea not be zero in this game, and for me the question is: Mata, Lampard or Ba? If we were talking about a month ago, probably, Arsenal wasn't on top, because Stoke had a very strong defensive consistency, but the past games have been disastrous for Stoke defense, adding the fact that Arsenal has a strong attack, I think that Arsenal is a good bet for this week and that the obvious choices are Walcott and Giround. The surprising 4th place goes to Southampton that will play agains the weak defense of Wigan, which has not yet achieved a clean sheet at home. Here the bet is on Lambert.

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On the search for the clean sheet, the data shows that there are several teams with relatively strong odds of having a clean sheet, but I would remove chelsea form the top, I believe that with the renewal of Newcastle's squad, Chelsea may concede goals. Swansea is in the top due to the very strong form of his defense in away games, with only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 games, and with an impressive 42% clean sheet away from home this season. Arsenal and Everton will play at home and against relatively easy teams, I think bouth can have clean sheets. Bets on players: From Swansea Vorm and Davies (if he is available), Gibbs and Sagna from Arsenal and from Everton the obvious choice, Baines.

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In the graphs below we can see a comparison of the prognostics of my method with the real results from last gameweek. The greener the better :) The flaws were obvious in the QPR - Man City, Fulham - West Ham and Norwich City - Tottenham. The method failed to predict the clean sheet of QPR, the lack of goals from Man City, the difficulty in scoring from Tottenham, the West Ham goal, the method gave a strong probability that fulham would had a clean sheet. But overall I think the method had a positive evaluation.

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