Fantasy Football Adviser

Friday, February 22, 2013

Top Players Gameweek 27

My method put two Arsenal players in the top and I think that is the right choice, although Arsenal is not in the best form, Arsenal usually score many goals at home against teams with weak defenses.
I think Van Persie will not be the right choice for captain, because QPR have been strong defensively.
A note for Sissoko that does not appear on top due to having few games, but I think it may be a good bet.

Defenders: On defense we have Manchester United players at the top because of the strong possibility of having a clean sheet and their good form. Also there are the usual Baines and Zabaleta.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Gameweek 27 Preview

After a double gameweek, where many Fantasy managers gambled everything on players from Liverpool and Swansea, the question comes: What to do with so many players who do not play this week. In my case I have 5 players, 3 will go to the bench and I will lose 4 points to transfer the other two.
And now... Where should i bet? Next week I hope to introduce two new graphics that will prognostics 6 weeks for attack and defense.

For now I have prognostic for the gameweek 27:
My method makes a big bet on Arsenal's attack, as it will face an opponent with one of the worst defenses (In the last 5 away games has 16 goals conceded). Man Utd has a poor prognosis due to the great QPR defensive form . This week we have int the top two teams that are not usual, Reading and Newcastle (Sissoko is my new Midfielder, and I have great faith in him :)).

This week as my method shows, I think there are many teams with the possibility of having a clean sheet, obviously the opposite can happen, ie, all teams concede goals, but my bet is that it will be a gameweek with some teams manage a clean sheet. On top we have Man Utd, Everton and Fulham. But Man Utd will be my big bet to get a clean sheet as QPR, despite the good defensive form, has not shown ability to score goals.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Gameweek 26 Top Players

Here are the results of my method for players. I'm more satisfied with the team "prognostics" than the players. Because here (players prognostics), I have less stats data (I only got free statistical data). A particular note for the low value of Sturridge and Rooney because of the few games made, I think they have more potential than the figures shows.
All the other results are normal, the top players don't bring surprises.

In the defenders and Goalkeepers can be seen the top players from Man City ahead of Liverpool although I think players like Johnson and Enrique can do a better score than Zabaleta. But defenders from Man City and Baines could be a good bet because they are in good form.

In the results Hart remains in the top due to their recent good form which is stronger than Reina, but with the double gameweek, I think Reina might be a better bet.

Good luck for the double gameweek :)

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Gameweek 26 Preview

The Double GameWeek Preview:
The teams in focus, are obviously Liverpool and Swansea, especially Liverpool with two games at home, one against Swansea (a team that suffers few goals, even in away games) and the other against WBA, that may give many joys for those with Liverpool players in the team. Bets will be obvious on Sturridge (if available), Gerrard and Suarez. On the side of Swansea despite being a double gameweek, can be very frustrating, because Swansea will play against QPR that only conceded 2 goals in the last 6 games. And the other game will be against Liverpool that has been very strong at home. So do not bet on many players from Swansea to the attack, and don't forget that in the next week Swansea and Liverpool will not play, and we have to be careful with the players we have available next week.

Then I would bet on Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham, as they can probably score goals in this week, the stakes are still in regular players, Mata, RVP, Rooney and Bale.

On the defense, the focus once again are on Liverpool and Swansea. For the defense, a bet on Liverpool players also could be a good bet, because the probability of having two clean sheets are high. Liverpool has been very strong defensively at home, with three goals conceded in six games and three clean sheets in a row. For this reason, bets on any of the defenders of Liverpool, could be good bets. I would bet on Johnson or Jose Enrique.
Unlike the attack, I think a bet on Swansea's defense might not be a bad bet, especially in the QPR game, which can give a clean sheet for Swansea.
There are four more teams that have some probability of not conceding goals, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Norwich City.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Gameweek 25 Preview Analysis

This week the results of my "predictions" were slightly more negative! The failures of the predictions of chelsea and everton with a good chance of clean sheet did not went well, and the suffered goal from Swansea also did not help on the results. For next prognostics, one of my goals is that, two of the three teams on the top 3 of defense predictions are the teams with less suffered goals in that gameweek.

To much red on the graph...

The attack predictions were not better than the defense.
Here are the major flaws:
- Man Utd that was on top just scored a goal.
- Arsenal also on top just scored a goal.
- Aston Villa which gave him little chance of making goals, scored 3 goals, such as Newcastle.
- West Ham that I foresaw as the team with the least chance of making goals, managed to score 1.

Again... To much red on the graph...

Friday, February 1, 2013

GameWeek 25 Preview

This week according to my method, the top 3 teams with more tendency to score goals are: Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. I think Manchester United will, as usual score goals, despite the victory of fulham in the last gameweek, I think United will win without difficulties, I think the question is to bet on Van Persie or Rooney. Chelsea will have a difficult move, because with the new signings from Newcastle, I think Newcastle will climb several positions in the table, but the most likely is chelsea not be zero in this game, and for me the question is: Mata, Lampard or Ba? If we were talking about a month ago, probably, Arsenal wasn't on top, because Stoke had a very strong defensive consistency, but the past games have been disastrous for Stoke defense, adding the fact that Arsenal has a strong attack, I think that Arsenal is a good bet for this week and that the obvious choices are Walcott and Giround. The surprising 4th place goes to Southampton that will play agains the weak defense of Wigan, which has not yet achieved a clean sheet at home. Here the bet is on Lambert.

On the search for the clean sheet, the data shows that there are several teams with relatively strong odds of having a clean sheet, but I would remove chelsea form the top, I believe that with the renewal of Newcastle's squad, Chelsea may concede goals. Swansea is in the top due to the very strong form of his defense in away games, with only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 games, and with an impressive 42% clean sheet away from home this season. Arsenal and Everton will play at home and against relatively easy teams, I think bouth can have clean sheets. Bets on players: From Swansea Vorm and Davies (if he is available), Gibbs and Sagna from Arsenal and from Everton the obvious choice, Baines.

In the graphs below we can see a comparison of the prognostics of my method with the real results from last gameweek. The greener the better :) The flaws were obvious in the QPR - Man City, Fulham - West Ham and Norwich City - Tottenham. The method failed to predict the clean sheet of QPR, the lack of goals from Man City, the difficulty in scoring from Tottenham, the West Ham goal, the method gave a strong probability that fulham would had a clean sheet. But overall I think the method had a positive evaluation.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Gameweek 24 Picks

Supported in the graphs I posted below and in my ideas for this week, these would be my choices for the top players:

GOALKEEPERS:
Hart - I think that will be the surest bet in search of a clean sheet.
Mignolet - I think Sunderland can have a clean sheet this week. Sunderland has been defensively strong at home.
LLloris - I think tottenham can get an easy win against Norwich.

DEFENDERS:
Lescott - Lescott may have a clean sheet and as a player who scores goals on a regular basis (not so much this year ...) may be a good bet.

Zabaleta - The same that was written for Lescott, but with the bonus of being in great form.

Evra - The focus is not so much because of the clean sheet (which can happen) but rather in the hope of an assist or goal, because it is in great form.

O'Shea & Riether - These are bets on clean sheet.

MIDFIELDERS
Gerrard - Although the dificult game, I think Liverpool will score goals against Arsenal and I think Gerrard could be involved in goals. Another player in great form.
Mata - Also in great form and with a game relatively easy to win.
Walcott - One of the best player in the fantasy premier league this year. It would be impossible not to be here.
Dempsey - This week he will probably play behind defoe, this advanced position in the field may give you a few more points
Lampard - Even with penalties, Lampard continues to score.

STRIKERS
Van Persie - Obvious. It's necessary to say something?
Ba - With the rest in the last game, Ba will be probably in the starting 11 and can be a strong pick.
Giroud - 4 goals in his last two games are enough to be here :)

For this week's choices I did not have in mind the budget, but I did not want to choose more than 3 players from each team.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Gameweek 24 - Attack and more

As we can see from the chart, we have 3 teams statistically most likely to score goals this week. Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal are my bets to score goals for this week . Even with a tough game ahead. Even with a tough game ahead, Arsenal will have ample opportunity to make goals since liverpool suffer many goals away from home. The bet on Man Utd will be obvious as it will be the best offense at home against the 2nd worst defense in away games.

Here there are no big surprises, because the top players are obvious choices. One of the best players that is not in this week's top places is Michu, because of his recent poor games, and the game against sunderland, that has a good ranking in home games, does not help. Another regular player who is not on top is Bale, also due to his recent poor form.

My bets on Goalkeeper will be on Goalkeepers of the teams from the previous post, ie, those that are more likely to have a clean sheet.

In the defense, I will also bet on the defenders of the teams most likely to have a clean sheet.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Gameweek 24 - Looking for a clean sheet

Here are the values for the defense strength, i.e., the probability of a clean sheet.
Unsurprisingly we can see Man City in the first place. The reasons for being the most likely team to have a clean sheet are the recent good form and the solid defense. May be considered weird teams that occupy the 2nd and 3rd luga, Fulham and Sunderland. Sunderland has a relatively solid defense at home and will have as an opponent a team that has scored few goals in away games.
Fulham will rival a team that just scored 2 goals in the last 5 away games. For these reasons the perfect team of the gameweak 24, may have defenses and a goalkeeper of these 3 teams

Welcome to Fantasy Football Adviser! As the
name implies, this will be a space where you
will find several posts with tips for one
of the most addictive games of the lovers
of football, the Fantasy Foootball game.

Mainly, I will leave here tips about the best players of the week. These tips will be given according to a
statistically method that I developed, joining to the method i will give my personal opinion.

The calculation of the best players come from several factors, including the form of the player (goals, assists) in the last games, the total score, another factor that will have huge importance is the game in question, for this, each team will also have a weekly rating for the probability of making goals and the probability of having a clean sheet.

Soon, I’ll release the first data for gameweek 24.
Thanks and hope you enjoy.