My method put two Arsenal players in the top and I think that is the right choice, although Arsenal is not in the best form, Arsenal usually score many goals at home against teams with weak defenses.
I think Van Persie will not be the right choice for captain, because QPR have been strong defensively.
A note for Sissoko that does not appear on top due to having few games, but I think it may be a good bet.
Defenders:
On defense we have Manchester United players at the top because of the strong possibility of having a clean sheet and their good form. Also there are the usual Baines and Zabaleta.
After a double gameweek, where many Fantasy managers gambled everything on players from Liverpool and Swansea, the question comes: What to do with so many players who do not play this week. In my case I have 5 players, 3 will go to the bench and I will lose 4 points to transfer the other two.
And now... Where should i bet? Next week I hope to introduce two new graphics that will prognostics 6 weeks for attack and defense.
For now I have prognostic for the gameweek 27:
My method makes a big bet on Arsenal's attack, as it will face an opponent with one of the worst defenses (In the last 5 away games has 16 goals conceded). Man Utd has a poor prognosis due to the great QPR defensive form . This week we have int the top two teams that are not usual, Reading and Newcastle (Sissoko is my new Midfielder, and I have great faith in him :)).
This week as my method shows, I think there are many teams with the possibility of having a clean sheet, obviously the opposite can happen, ie, all teams concede goals, but my bet is that it will be a gameweek with some teams manage a clean sheet. On top we have Man Utd, Everton and Fulham. But Man Utd will be my big bet to get a clean sheet as QPR, despite the good defensive form, has not shown ability to score goals.
Here are the results of my method for players. I'm more satisfied with the team "prognostics" than the players. Because here (players prognostics), I have less stats data (I only got free statistical data). A particular note for the low value of Sturridge and Rooney because of the few games made, I think they have more potential than the figures shows.
All the other results are normal, the top players don't bring surprises.
In the defenders and Goalkeepers can be seen the top players from Man City ahead of Liverpool although I think players like Johnson and Enrique can do a better score than Zabaleta. But defenders from Man City and Baines could be a good bet because they are in good form.
In the results Hart remains in the top due to their recent good form which is stronger than Reina, but with the double gameweek, I think Reina might be a better bet.
The Double GameWeek Preview: The teams in focus, are obviously Liverpool and Swansea, especially Liverpool with two games at home, one against Swansea (a team that suffers few goals, even in away games) and the other against WBA, that may give many joys for those with Liverpool players in the team. Bets will be obvious on Sturridge (if available), Gerrard and Suarez. On the side of Swansea despite being a double gameweek, can be very frustrating, because Swansea will play against QPR that only conceded 2 goals in the last 6 games. And the other game will be against Liverpool that has been very strong at home. So do not bet on many players from Swansea to the attack, and don't forget that in the next week Swansea and Liverpool will not play, and we have to be careful with the players we have available next week.
Then I would bet on Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham, as they can probably score goals in this week, the stakes are still in regular players, Mata, RVP, Rooney and Bale.
On the defense, the focus once again are on Liverpool and Swansea. For the defense, a bet on Liverpool players also could be a good bet, because the probability of having two clean sheets are high. Liverpool has been very strong defensively at home, with three goals conceded in six games and three clean sheets in a row. For this reason, bets on any of the defenders of Liverpool, could be good bets. I would bet on Johnson or Jose Enrique. Unlike the attack, I think a bet on Swansea's defense might not be a bad bet, especially in the QPR game, which can give a clean sheet for Swansea. There are four more teams that have some probability of not conceding goals, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Norwich City.
This week the results of my "predictions" were slightly more negative! The failures of the predictions of chelsea and everton with a good chance of clean sheet did not went well, and the suffered goal from Swansea also did not help on the results.
For next prognostics, one of my goals is that, two of the three teams on the top 3 of defense predictions are the teams with less suffered goals in that gameweek.
The attack predictions were not better than the defense.
Here are the major flaws:
- Man Utd that was on top just scored a goal.
- Arsenal also on top just scored a goal.
- Aston Villa which gave him little chance of making goals, scored 3 goals, such as Newcastle.
- West Ham that I foresaw as the team with the least chance of making goals, managed to score 1.
This week according to my method, the top 3 teams with more tendency to score goals are: Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. I think Manchester United will, as usual score goals, despite the victory of fulham in the last gameweek, I think United will win without difficulties, I think the question is to bet on Van Persie or Rooney. Chelsea will have a difficult move, because with the new signings from Newcastle, I think Newcastle will climb several positions in the table, but the most likely is chelsea not be zero in this game, and for me the question is: Mata, Lampard or Ba? If we were talking about a month ago, probably, Arsenal wasn't on top, because Stoke had a very strong defensive consistency, but the past games have been disastrous for Stoke defense, adding the fact that Arsenal has a strong attack, I think that Arsenal is a good bet for this week and that the obvious choices are Walcott and Giround. The surprising 4th place goes to Southampton that will play agains the weak defense of Wigan, which has not yet achieved a clean sheet at home. Here the bet is on Lambert.
On the search for the clean sheet, the data shows that there are several teams with relatively strong odds of having a clean sheet, but I would remove chelsea form the top, I believe that with the renewal of Newcastle's squad, Chelsea may concede goals. Swansea is in the top due to the very strong form of his defense in away games, with only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 games, and with an impressive 42% clean sheet away from home this season. Arsenal and Everton will play at home and against relatively easy teams, I think bouth can have clean sheets. Bets on players: From Swansea Vorm and Davies (if he is available), Gibbs and Sagna from Arsenal and from Everton the obvious choice, Baines.
In the graphs below we can see a comparison of the prognostics of my method with the real results from last gameweek. The greener the better :)
The flaws were obvious in the QPR - Man City, Fulham - West Ham and Norwich City - Tottenham. The method failed to predict the clean sheet of QPR, the lack of goals from Man City, the difficulty in scoring from Tottenham, the West Ham goal, the method gave a strong probability that fulham would had a clean sheet. But overall I think the method had a positive evaluation.
